Taco Bell's statistically invalid promotion

So Jacoby Ellsbury just stole second base in game 2 of the world series. Taco Bell has a promotion that says everybody in the United States can have a free taco.

This has to be one of the most horseshit offers ever, both in spirit and statistical impossibility.

Lets look at the numbers.

• Offer is limited to 2-5pm local time on October 30, 2007. (180 minutes)
  
• Of course, most people are at work between 2 and 5 pm on a Tuesday. This is the "horseshit in spirit" reasoning. The MLB broadcasters even mentioned that they'd serve more between 2 and 5 AM.
  
• As of July, 2007, there were 301,139,945 people in the United states. (source)
• 202,360,787 between ages 14 and 65
• 12% live in poverty. Poor people are more likely to give a shit about a free Taco Bell Taco. 12% of the US population is 36,136,793
  
• The last 5 times I went to Taco Bell, it took them 5-10 minutes to complete my order.
• Lets be generous and say that they could turn around an order in 5 seconds, assuming everybody is just getting their free taco and nothing else, and that everybody pays attention and moves forward in line in an assembly line fashion.
• Lets be more generous and pretend that each store just continuously cranks out tacos and puts them in a big pile at the register, and everybody can just take one and go. Conceivably (but not practically) they could deliver 90 per minute, if every customer was running in unison through the queue and grabbed their free taco with the skill and precision of a relay racer receiving the baton handoff.
• As of 2006, there were 5,608 Taco Bell locations in the United States. (source) The numbers have been in decline for the past several years, and Taco Bell's food continues to suck, so there's no good reason to assume that that number has increased significantly in 2007. Again, though, we'll be generous and round up to an even 6000.
• So using the actual numbers and realistic estimates from above, 5608 stores can serve a taco every 5 seconds (12 per minute) for 180 minutes.
  
• 5806 x 12 x 180 = 12,540,960 tacos available.
• So there's no way "everybody in America" is eligible. They can't statistically be eligible. Not all of them. Each of them, individually, can *think* they're eligible. But they'll be wrong. Most of them can't be.
• Statistically, 96% of America is ineligible for this promotion.
  
• In other words: Look at the 12 people on your left. Look at the 12 people to your right. One of you is eligible.
  
• Remember, there's 36 million people living in poverty. That's only enough for 1 out of every 3 poor people.
  
• Using those generous numbers from above... 6000 stores can each serve 90 tacos per minute for 180 minutes.
• 6000 x 90 x 180 = 97.2 million tacos available.
• Again, there's no way that everybody in America is eligible. We're up to about 33% of the population give or take. Close to half the if you only include ages 14-65, but that's only if you concede that old people and kids don't matter, you ageist jerk.
• So now, look to your left, and look to your right. Now "only" 2 of you aren't eligible.
• 1 of you is eligible if you knock over the little kid or grandma next to you. (ageist jerks only.)
  

Some summary bullet points.

• Taco Bell states that 100% of America is eligible for this promotion.
  
• The actual number is closer to 4%
• Thus, Taco Bell is confused about the difference between 100% and 4%.

Nice job Taco Bell. You're 100% awesome!

Also, there's a rumor that Taco Bell taco meat isn't really beef at all (hence, that's why they call it "meat". It being made from "whatever" meaty goodness is in the scraps pile.) This is of course ridiculous. I'm pretty sure Taco Bell meat is made from 100% USDA Beef.

Attention Arby's: You suck.

Reasons why Arby's, with particular attention to the Arby's on Hammond Drive, sucks.

1. They switched to Pepsi products last year. I could forgive this somewhat, because the Jamocha shakes are still quite tasty.
2. They no longer have baked potatoes
• The guy behind the counter suggested I get an order of the "Loaded Potato Bites", which are essentially deep fried tater tots with cheese and bacon in them. Not that I have anything against deep-frying, tater-tots, bacon, or cheese; on the contrary, I'm a huge fan of deep-frying, tater-tots, bacon, and cheese. But it's certainly no substitute for a baked potato
  
3. They no longer have HomeStyle Fries.
   
• Worse - they guy behind the counter said they replaced them with the potato cakes. I'm not sure what his definition of "replace" is, but they had them both (along with curly fries) for as long as I can remember.
  

Many times in the past I've gone into Arby's and ordered a loaded baked potato, an order of homestyle fries, and a diet coke. (see.. the diet coke cancels out the sour cream and cheese, and the healthy "baked" potato cancels out the french fries. I never figured out how to counterbalance the bacon and butter, though...) Now, apparently, I'm stuck ordering a milkshake and a dry-ass roast beef sandwich.

In summary:
Arby's -- you suck.

Sincerely,
Jake

happy birthday to me

I finally got the set of poker chips I ordered after my birthday. A few of my friends chipped in for cash, and let me do the dirty work on eBay. Which was fine with me.

On a side note, even though I was home all day, and was listening for the UPS truck, he managed to sneak up the driveway and drop the package off by my garage door. I suspect he was too lazy to walk up the stairs and ring the doorbell, given the weight of the package. Of course, the weight of the package is why the cost of shipping was so much, so maybe next time I'll use Fed-Ex, given the chance.

Anyhow, here's some pictures:

It really makes you think...

It hate it when people end a sad story with "it really makes you think..."

It really doesn't. Because, unlike these idiots, I spend the bulk of my time thinking. It doesn't take a heart-warming documentary to kick-start my brain.

People are idiots.

I got to give it up for the Man

In order to gain security clearance for a government contract that the company I work for is fulfilling, I had the *honor* of *volunteering* my urine for a good old-fashioned drug screening. As a point of note, I am not concerned in any way, shape, or form that there would be *anything* of questionable origin in my urine; I don't even like taking prescription drugs. I'm just not a big fan of whizzing in a cup for the man. On my lunch break, no less.

Painting rooms and backed up sewer lines! What a weekend!

We painted Andy's bedroom this weekend. We also painted the master bedroom. Pictures are forthcoming, but we're still working on getting everything back in place in the room before I take any pictures. The walls throughout the entire house were that "apartment white" color when we bought it. Now there are two rooms with some color. The master bedroom is kind of light blue and Andy's room is kind of lime green. Again, pictures are forthcoming.

Late yesterday evening, when I was looking out the kitchen window, I noticed a big puddle in our backyard down in the ravine. Upon further inspection, I determined that the puddle included a variety of items like toilet paper, and that it smelled like shit. There is also a big white pipe that sticks out of the ground, where you can jam things down to clean out blockages. The lid on this was off (it is normally on) and it was full ofwater. With my keen eye and immense knowledge of all things plumbing-related, I immediately determined that "something must be blocked up." Long story short - I now have $200 less than I had this morning, and I got to meet one of roto-rooter's finest. But I can flush the toilet without shit floating around in my yard, so I guess that's good.